China is about to overtake France in gold, and it’s still buying

Central banks kept buying gold in October as its price fell. Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst for EMEA at the World Gold Council, set out the month’s purchases in social media posts reported by Kitco on 10 November. The headline is China: its official holdings now stand at 2,435 tonnes, which Gopaul says is “now 2 tonnes behind France’s gold reserves.”

October, bank by bank

As reported by Kitco from Krishan Gopaul’s posts. Kitco names no sellers. Poland’s 700 tonnes is its announced target, which it says it has reached.

The four named buyers add up to about 62.5 tonnes by our addition. That is a partial count: in the third quarter only about 120 of the 321 tonnes the WGC estimated was traced to a named country (see Central banks are still buying gold).

China and France

Kitco does not state France’s holdings; 2 tonnes ahead of China implies about 2,437 tonnes. France has not been a meaningful buyer, so at October’s pace China would pass it next month if it keeps buying. China Daily reported October’s 830,000-ounce addition as the 24th straight month and the largest since September 2023; 24 months and counting has the month-by-month table.

China’s figures are the ones it reports. Gold is still a small share of its reserves: about 7.9% at the end of October, an analyst told China Daily, against about 27% for central banks worldwide.

Poland hit 700 tonnes. Now what?

The National Bank of Poland said last week that it had reached its target of 700 tonnes. When we looked at August’s figures, it held 648 tonnes. Governor Adam Glapiński does not sound finished. “I see no reason why we should stop buying gold,” he said, according to Kitco, adding: “I believe that our gold reserves should grow in line with our overall reserves.” He also said: “You ask what comes after these 700 tons. We need to sit down and think it through calmly.” No new target has been set.

Do central banks put a floor under gold?

The WGC’s answer is a careful no. Its quarterly demand trends report, quoted by Kitco, says purchases “appear sensitive to price. This pattern could provide some price support and stability, although the relationship is not sufficiently stable to imply a firm floor for the gold price.” It expects demand “to remain firm in Q4.” Central banks bought 321 tonnes in the third quarter, up 42% on the year and above the five-year quarterly average of 227 tonnes, according to the WGC.

October shows both halves of that. Buying continued, and in China’s case rose, while the price fell. It did not stop the fall, and on Tuesday gold dropped more than $100 on inflation data (see Hot CPI, hawkish Fed). Steady official demand affects the long-run balance more than any single day’s price.

Nothing here is advice or a forecast. The current price is on the gold price page.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.