Central banks are still buying gold. What that does and doesn’t tell investors

Gold and silver are building on last week’s rebound, and central banks remain the steadiest buyers in the market. In a note reported by Kitco on Monday 9 November, analysts at Heraeus say official purchases are on pace to beat 2025’s total. Kitco had spot gold at $4,124.86 an ounce, up 1.30% on the day, and silver at $52.68, up 1.48%.

The rebound began after gold fell more than 15% from its late-August high. Heraeus says it briefly dropped below $3,900, “breaking the June low near $3,950/oz,” before recovering above $4,000. Its largest daily gain since August followed the Democrats’ sweep of both houses of Congress in last week’s midterms.

The official-sector numbers

World Gold Council estimates, as cited by Heraeus via Kitco.

Only about 120 of the 321 tonnes bought in the third quarter can be traced to a named country. Of those, Heraeus lists China at 63 tonnes, Poland at 40, and Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan at 14 each. The other 200 tonnes or so is the WGC’s estimate of buying that no central bank has reported. China has kept going since: it added about 26 tonnes in October, its 24th straight month (see 24 months and counting).

Why buy at these prices?

Central banks are not trading the price month to month. They buy for reserves they expect to hold for years, and China kept buying through October’s fall. That makes them a steady source of demand, but not a signal of where the price goes next: official buying was strong through the third quarter, and gold still fell 15% from its August high. Central banks just bought the most gold in two years has the September detail.

For an individual, the reasons usually given for official buying, such as diversifying reserves away from the dollar, are not the same as a household’s. What its buying does show is a large buyer that has not been put off by high prices.

Silver’s supply side

Heraeus also pointed to supply. Hecla mined 4.17 million ounces in the third quarter, down from 4.21 million in the second and 4.58 million a year earlier, a fall of 9%. Its Keno Hill mine in Canada produced a record 963,000 ounces, up 54% on the quarter. Heraeus puts Hecla’s 16.1 million ounces at about 1.9% of global silver mine supply, which is forecast at 844.1 million ounces in 2026. Silver set a 2026 low just under $49 before rebounding above $52.

What could stall the rebound

Heraeus names two headwinds. Brent crude fell nearly 9% in one session but has recovered above $95 a barrel, and higher oil keeps inflation, and so rate expectations, elevated. “The markets are now pricing in around a 79% probability of a December hike,” Heraeus wrote, after October payrolls rose 165,000 against 65,000 expected. Those odds have since risen to 84%, as CPI day sets out.

Nothing here is advice or a forecast. The current price is on the gold price page.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.