Gold’s one-year low, and why it has not rallied on a weaker dollar

Spot gold fell below $3,900 an ounce on Friday 30 October, down 3.5% on the day and nearly 3% on the week, according to Kitco News. It was the lowest level since 6 October 2025, when the metal touched an intraday low of $3,884.61. Kitco also put gold about 13.5% below its 200-day moving average, which sat near $4,490 at the time.

Oil, not the dollar, set the tone

The usual support for gold did not work that day. The dollar and bond yields both weakened, which normally helps the metal, yet gold did not rally. Kitco’s explanation was that oil had become the market’s main concern. Crude prices, tied to the conflict with Iran, were pushing up inflation expectations, and those expectations were keeping central banks tight.

The Federal Reserve held its rate target steady on Wednesday 28 October. Kitco reported that markets still expected a rate rise in December and through the first quarter of 2027. Third-quarter US economic growth of 3.4% gave the Fed room to keep tightening, in that reading. Gold tends to do well when rates are cut, so a central bank that is still raising them is a headwind.

What the analysts said

Kitco quoted several analysts, and they did not agree on much. Philip Streible of Blue Line Futures expected gold to keep struggling while oil stayed high. Waleed Said of GivTrade saw lower prices as the path of least resistance and named $3,800 as a level to test; he argued that oil and the dollar, not gold, were acting as the safe havens in this conflict. Jeff Sarti of Morton Wealth read the sell-off as technical and pointed to bearish sentiment readings as a contrarian sign. Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets said the midterm elections could change the outlook but still saw any large dip as a buying opportunity.

Kitco also reported one explanation for the selling that has nothing to do with inflation. One analyst said investors had sold gold to cover margin calls after a tech sell-off, because gold can be turned into cash quickly. That is a claim from one source, and it is a different story from the rate one.

The rebound, and what did not change

By Monday 2 November, Kitco reported spot gold near $3,945.80, up $71.40 or 1.84%. The move followed a fall in crude: Brent settled at $104.77, down 7.6%, after reports of progress in talks held in Doha. Kitco noted that no formal agreement had been announced. The 10-year Treasury yield eased toward 4.9% and the dollar was softer, both supportive for gold, but strong US manufacturing data kept rate expectations high.

Silver had its worst week since June over the same days, and fell harder in the same sell-off, nearly 9% over the week. Kitco’s technical reference points for gold were resistance at $3,978 and $4,035 and support at $3,817 and $3,719. These are the publication’s, not ours.

What to watch

Kitco listed the coming data: JOLTS job openings and factory orders on Tuesday, ADP and ISM services on Wednesday, and the October nonfarm payrolls report on Friday 6 November. Its reading is that weaker payrolls could help gold, and strong employment would strengthen the case for higher rates. The midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November.

For a daily record of where the price has been, see the archive and the gold price page. Every figure in this article is attributed to the Kitco reports cited above.

Every figure here is as reported by the publications listed under Sources, at the time they reported it. Prices move; the live gold price has the current one. Nothing on this page is investment advice.